wildweasel said:
5byfive said:
Microsoft claims a working quantum chip will arrive by 2029. Nearly every form of cryptography would be at risk. Whether the blockchain can withstand that, I'm not sure. My guess is that a large amount of capital will pull out until safety is demonstrated.
honestly, a 100% non-issue. I work right alongside cryptography and it is part of what my job role demands I understand... quantum machines dont crack any of the crypto we actually rely on today. What they force is one of two things: either 1) the key space has to grow to offset the extra power that algorithms such as Shor's bring (easy to do), or 2) you move to a different crypto primitive (equally easy). AES-256 already counts as quantum resistant, and that is part of why current cipher algos moved up from AES128 to AES256 in the first place. If it were ever needed, AES512 would get standardized, and it would be 2^256 times harder to factor than AES256... suppose a quantum machine could somehow factor AES256 in 1 second, then shifting to AES512 would demand 10^67 centuries to break, which outruns the lifetime of the universe. The arithmetic simply behaves like that.
There are also complete cipher suites for which no known quantum-native algorithm reduces the complexity at all, lattice fields being the obvious example
Number theory has studied this question thoroughly, so nothing actually becomes 'broken' - what happens is that we start playing a game of using larger numbers, or of switching primitives. As long as key sizes scale up, or as long as we avoid leaning on prime factorization and discrete logarithms for our complexity, modern cryptography stays secure against quantum algorithms.
Within cryptocurrency specifically, algos have already gone 'broken' before - this is not new territory at all.
Whenever that happens, and a hashing algo is either at risk or already 'broken', the community carries out a 'fork'. Parameters, or primitives, get adjusted to something safe. With post-quantum work that normally amounts to scaling the key size up, since you rarely have to swap primitives at all - larger primes usually do the job
Should quantum turn into a genuine threat, they would just move off elliptic curve and onto lattice, or onto something else that avoids factorization and discrete logarithms. That call belongs to the developers, honestly.
BTC has forked 3 times already, and one of those came from an algorithm change. Monero went through several rounds purely to stop ASIC attacks on its algorithm. litecoin sits at 2, while etherum is somewhere past 10.
None of that is unusual. Once crypto communities decide post-quantum cryptography needs addressing, they will address it, exactly as they already did back when ASIC mining was wrecking their algos