When word first reached me a few months back that they were aiming for the Biologic path, my reaction was the same. I've got 5 grams tucked away in the freezer, set aside for a rainy day—or rainy years.
Hold on—the Sartan (for blood pressure, I'm guessing things like "Telmisartan") is somewhat logical...
Over at The-Incretins, "David W" shares his take on what Lilly is doing strategically:
In my view, compounding is what worries them much more. For the typical person, Gray presents a lot of hurdles: you need to figure out crypto, search through forums, tg, and discord, dodge scams, and pick up mixing and dosing. None of that is especially difficult, yet it shifts the cost-benefit calculation considerably.
The biologic I've been on for 20 years still runs 5k every month. I'm close to reaching out to the Chinese to see whether they can produce a fusion protein that matches Enbrel.
It's not as if Eli Lilly is blind to the insurance problem—they bring it up constantly, and it's among the main obstacles keeping tirz from becoming an even larger blockbuster. In my view, the most pressing short-term motive for seeking a biologic designation would be shutting down compounding; the broader generic consequences down the road are definitely appealing too, but right now compounding is siphoning off a huge amount of business from both Lilly and Novo. Ricks mentions this often in interviews.
Halting compounding won't alter the reality that US insurers won't pay for it, that nationalized health systems in other countries can't make the cost-to-benefit math work, and that most people simply can't cover the out-of-pocket expense themselves.
Look at it this way: this is the largest drugmaker on the planet, and its CEO keeps saying the goal is to cut what these treatments cost so more people can get them, plus insurers have to be brought into the picture. A company like that isn't going to slap on some wild, arbitrary price. It could end up costing a lot, sure, but before launch they will have poured enormous effort into figuring out the right pricing.
EL isn't losing customers to compounders. EL is losing customers to itself. What's LD pricing, around 500 per month? Sorry, I've already got a car payment, and there's no way I'm paying 500 a month for medication.
There's a snag I notice there: GLP medications travel as liquids—either pens or vials—rather than as freeze-dried powder, which makes transport problematic. Even when you have a valid prescription, ordering from India probably involves lengthy transit under hot ambient conditions. Compounders nearby can sidestep the transport problem by adding a cold pack to the shipment and sending it via express service.
spanky2026 said:
If Lilly manages to secure a biologic designation for Retatrutide and then slaps a sky-high price on it as the latest miracle of miracles, my guess is their following move (or payoff) would involve eliminating compounding, which is a big supplier of Tirz. After that, they'd be free to set Tirz's price however they like as a cheaper fallback for the unwashed masses who can't swing Reta, reclaiming that segment from the compounders.
Then again, I'm just a Liberal Arts grad, not a finance person.
