Is Eli Lilly Acquiring Chinese Suppliers?

[InterestingTree82266]

This morning I came across a video claiming that Lilly has already taken legal action against 200 influencers regarding Reta and is in the process of purchasing Chinese suppliers. According to the video, this would lead to supplier shortages, increased prices, and the need for more testing to confirm the product is genuine. What are your thoughts?

 

[tekkit]

Lilly's possible move to snap up Chinese suppliers might backfire in the form of a "perverse incentive", otherwise known as the "cobra effect".

Loading…

en.wikipedia.org

In short, if Lilly keeps acquiring suppliers, that could actually encourage more suppliers to appear, since they would be hoping Lilly comes along and buys them too. The wiki page lists some excellent cases, and it's worth a read. One that's fairly recent:

In 2002, British officials tasked with suppressing opium production in Afghanistan offered poppy farmers $700 an acre in return for destroying their crop. This ignited a poppy-growing frenzy among Afghan farmers, who sought to plant as many poppies as they could in order to collect payouts from the cash-for-poppies program. Some farmers harvested and sold the sap before destroying the plants, thereby receiving significantly more money for the same amount of poppies.

Click to expand...

The joy of economics and the fun of unintended/unexpected consequences.

 

[bamagirl26]

That's sort of the reason I began accumulating more than necessary. I regret not getting involved roughly a year sooner, back when the suppliers all appeared to be running smoothly with what looked like fewer problems.

 

[Just A Cat]

I want people to see the bigger picture of what's taking shape here.

Keep in mind that 'Lil (along with the PBMs) is the reason the insulin pricing disaster happened.

Consider the sheer amount of cash 'Lil is pulling in right now.

Consider the level of influence that kind of cash is able to purchase.

Consider the market share that cash can buy.... for instance:

Consider how much of the pipeline of potential new drugs they've already bought up.

How massive could they become with still more market share and still more revenue?

What exactly is being assembled here?

A corporation that will hold more wealth than plenty of entire nations.

• Its market capitalization has now officially passed the $1 trillion mark, which makes it the biggest pharmaceutical company in the world.
  
• For comparison's sake, a $1 trillion valuation means 'Lil is valued above the whole yearly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Argentina, or Poland.

What are they going to do with that degree of power and influence?

• Wealth on that scale brings enormous geopolitical clout. They lobby Washington hard to mold patent legislation, set the limits of Medicare drug negotiations, and shape FDA approval structures. They are able to outspend anyone who opposes them, bankroll specialized medical associations that write treatment guidelines, and use their economic heft to lock in far-reaching government deals

 

[Redz]

China is not going to halt, full stop. There is no obligation for them to do so, since they are not accountable to anybody.

 

[Skidude]

InterestingTree82266 said:


Just saw a video this morning mentioning that Lilly already sued 200 Influencers over Reta and is buying out china suplliers. Video mentioned this will cause shortage in supplier and higher prices + the need to test more to be sure to get the reall stuff. What do you think ?

Click to expand...

There are a lot of problems with that video:

Like @tekkit pointed out, a market would be created by it

Compound showed up because of shortages.

The list probably goes on much further

At the end of the day, were that to happen, quality and availability would probably go up.

If you want to save the whales, put them on the menu. (euphemism, much harder with whales)

 

[BNLFL]

Does anyone recall that I raised a similar point some time ago, and explained why I intended to load up and stash away a huge amount? In my case, the theory leaned more toward Lilly using its influence over the government to tighten enforcement at customs and the like. They certainly have deep pockets — though I'm not convinced those pockets are deep enough to purchase a whole bunch of suppliers.

 

[Mr. B]

bamagirl26 said:

That's sort of the reason I began accumulating more than necessary. I regret not getting involved roughly a year sooner, back when the suppliers all appeared to be running smoothly with what looked like fewer problems.

Yeah, that's the reason I grabbed a big amount during one of the GBs. All I'm missing is one more solid score covering Tirz, Reta and ARA, and then I'll have enough put away to last a long while, no matter what they decide to do. Though I did notice lately that a different company is developing a Pep in the same vein as Reta to compete.

 

[EllaRose]

Mr. B said:

Yeah, that's the reason I grabbed a big amount during one of the GBs. All I'm missing is one more solid score covering Tirz, Reta and ARA, and then I'll have enough put away to last a long while, no matter what they decide to do. Though I did notice lately that a different company is developing a Pep in the same vein as Reta to compete.

UBT251#-ubt251Developed by United Biotechnology and licensed to Novo Nordisk, this is a once-weekly agonist targeting the same three receptors; its Phase 2 data at the same timepoint are better than retatrutide's, and there is no enforcement campaign aimed at its supply.

 

[Skidude]

Mr. B said:

Yeah, that's the reason I grabbed a big amount during one of the GBs. All I'm missing is one more solid score covering Tirz, Reta and ARA, and then I'll have enough put away to last a long while, no matter what they decide to do. Though I did notice lately that a different company is developing a Pep in the same vein as Reta to compete.

A handful exist....

 

[spanky2026]

Yep, the stockpile in my freezer is looking like a better decision by the day. (Or at least, that's the story I'm sticking with. )

 

[spanky2026]

InterestingTree82266 said:


Just saw a video this morning mentioning that Lilly already sued 200 Influencers over Reta and is buying out china suplliers. Video mentioned this will cause shortage in supplier and higher prices + the need to test more to be sure to get the reall stuff. What do you think ?

Click to expand...

Could you share a link to that video?

 

[Just A Cat]

Would China ever permit them to purchase the whole supply chain? Not a chance. But would China accept full company valuation in exchange for a 49% minority stake, with enough control handed over to halt the "extra" output coming out of that plant? Absolutely.

So if Lilly is prepared to shell out a crazy sum, they could make life quite difficult.

 

[frizzle-fry]

EllaRose said:

UBT251#-ubt251Developed by United Biotechnology and licensed to Novo Nordisk, this is a once-weekly agonist targeting the same three receptors; its Phase 2 data at the same timepoint are better than retatrutide's, and there is no enforcement campaign aimed at its supply.

Vistrutide! It was just published together with its structure a short while ago, and already it is beginning to appear on grey markets.

 

[Torque]

I hope it ends up with its own forum section, otherwise I'll totally blank on what it's called, lol.

 

[sheilarae74]

Redz said:

China is not going to halt, full stop. There is no obligation for them to do so, since they are not accountable to anybody.

That's my take on it too. All that fear mongering doesn't convince me. These big pharma psyops aren't something I'm going to fall for.

 

[HouseCat]

My grasp of global economics is pretty thin, but it seems to me that Chinese firms could just as readily cash out to Lily, move the money around, and then launch fresh companies. Get paid to shut down and get paid to start up.

I'm relieved that I already have enough tirz to last quite a few years, and in a few months I'll be adding another few years' worth. Still, I'm not rushing out to stockpile at this very moment.

 

[Torque]

Still, plenty of other massive pharma players rely on the same Chinese API — or whatever the proper term is — that Lilly does, right? Sure, Lilly might snap up several companies, but Novo and everyone else continue getting their materials from China, don't they? There's no way they'd just sit back and let Lilly corner the market on producing all of it. That said, I really have no idea how any of this actually functions.

 

[frizzle-fry]

HouseCat said:

My grasp of global economics is pretty thin, but it seems to me that Chinese firms could just as readily cash out to Lily, move the money around, and then launch fresh companies. Get paid to shut down and get paid to start up.

I'm relieved that I already have enough tirz to last quite a few years, and in a few months I'll be adding another few years' worth. Still, I'm not rushing out to stockpile at this very moment.

Sure, they could — no question about it. But somebody out there will always be ready to produce them. The money involved is simply too big. That's the iron law of prohibition.

 

[tekkit]

Redz said:

China is not going to halt, full stop. There is no obligation for them to do so, since they are not accountable to anybody.

The only way Beijing puts a stop to it is if the government concludes that doing so serves its own interests. That said, it's not a given that gray peptide manufacturing would have to conflict with those interests. Deals get struck all the time behind closed doors. For instance: "Let us go after your citizens on our soil, and in return we'll give you XYZ." That XYZ might include stronger intellectual property enforcement, which in turn might lead to domestic crackdowns on gray market compound production.

I'm not claiming this is going to happen, or even that it's especially probable. I'm simply laying out one scenario in which making gray market peptides in China could get harder. At least temporarily. Plenty always happens away from public view.